In politics, certain battles become significant not for their immediate output, but for the larger implications beyond the stakes in contention, and Delhi’s current election is one such.
Being a proto-state with little powers, Delhi’s assembly elections don't hold much in terms of power balance. But a disproportionately massive frenzy seems to have built up around it, which seems to go beyond the simplistic explanation that the hype is because of the fact that it is the union capital. While Delhi is indeed a prestige battle for a popular and personality centric union government like the current one, the intensity and tenor of the campaign indicates a deeper ideological tussle.
Prelude:
Delhi had traditionally been the territory of parties with a pan-Indian presence, but the entry of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in 2012, has completely altered the scene. The party’s unconventional and rapid rise with no clear social construct or demographic backing surprised everybody. In a sense, we could call it a political start-up, whose very survival was a surprising gamble. Having said that, the party seems to have tempered its initial ways of erratic mudslinging and curated itself into a responsible political force over the years. Despite the great deal of churn within its ranks and the tussles that it had with the Lieutenant Governor (aka Union Government), it has managed to lead the state government for a full five years. What’s more remarkable is that in spite of AAP's dismal show in the recent parliamentary elections, the party seems to be front-runners in the current campaign. In fact, the Congress party seems to have decided to run a low-key campaign to avoid the split of anti-BJP votes, which is likely to further aid AAP.
The Battleground:
On the ground, the incumbent Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal seems exuberant and confident of a second term. He has made his work in improving Delhi’s educational and healthcare institutions as his campaign plank. Day after day, his team keeps talking statistics of positive changes that they’ve brought about in the socio-economic indicators of the city-state. They also seem to be deflating the counter-narratives of the BJP with remarkable ease, which is in addition to their reasoned critique of the BJP’s centrally sponsored schemes.
The BJP for its part, having sensed the danger in dancing to Kejriwal’s tune has thus far smartly racked up an entirely different plank, ‘nationalism, security and cultural populism’. BJP is, therefore, playing to its strength by trying to paint Kejriwal as the face of the pseudo-secular, anti-Hindu, pro-Muslim brigade of Delhi. With the heat of CAA/NRC protests still being felt and the blockade of Shaheen Bagh by protesters still in place, the BJP clearly intends to trumpet its drums around these issues. Being a sticky wicket, Kejriwal has thus far been cleverly ducking the brickbats being hurled at him in this domain and has been stern in not swaying away from his plank of livelihood issues. While he has unambiguously stated his opposition to CAA/NRC, he has been subtle in making statements regarding them. Further, he has been actively trying to divorce CAA/NRC from the assembly election by stressing that they fall within the ambit of the central government.
If Kejriwal manages to win the battle for Delhi, it would become the second time that he manages to pull it off right under the nose of the hawkish and all-powerful Narendra Modi. Not someone to take a punch lying down, Modi has dispatched his best men to launch a full-fledged assault, which has added spice to the David vs. Goliath narrative. With Amit Shah spearheading the Delhi campaign and a multitude of Chief Ministers and ministers to assist him, a loss for BJP from here will only add to Kejriwal’s lore and dent Shah’s image as a political strategist. While AAP’s national ambitions aren’t very bright even if they pull off a win, a positive result for them will nevertheless inspire the opposition camp elsewhere, which the BJP desires to avoid. On the contrary, if AAP loses Delhi, its very survival will become tricky as the initial euphoria around it has already died. Further, with Kejriwal having monopolized power within the party, the development of a second rung leadership has effectively been stifled, leaving little room for an organic revival.
The Ideological Divide:
With both the major contenders having set their planks very different, no Indian election in recent history has had such a striking ideological divide. “Kejriwal ki Guarantee Card'', which has become an election manifesto of sorts for the AAP, is a detailed socialist doctrine, which contrasts with the spate of controversial and inciting sloganeering that the BJP has mooted. The BJP has thus brewed for itself, a strong Hindu rightist cocktail with Kashmir, Ram Mandir, NIA, and the latest CAA/NRC.
Here, it is to be noted that thus far, the BJP’s successful campaigns were largely oriented against the unpopular centre-left incumbent governments, that were belittled with serious corruption scandals. Hence, they were weaving a combined narrative of subtle Hindutva, and an aggressive assertion of economic betterment for all. Further, even BJP’s march to victory in the 2019 parliamentary elections was greatly aided by a fractured opposition with no clear vision or direction. In contrast, Delhi currently has a popular government under a clear leadership that has largely stayed clean of corruption charges, which has forced the BJP to reveal its core ideals in full throttle to make space for itself in the arena. In a way, this seems to be the most assertive Hindutva plank that the BJP has taken since the Gujarat elections of 2002.
With surveys indicating that Modi’s all-India popularity hasn’t dipped much since his re-election in April last year, and an equally positive opinion that prevails in favour of Kejriwal in Delhi, the battle has become more rooted in the ideological parley that the neutral voter’s mind gets subjected to. Hence, Delhi 2020 could be seen as a battle for the very idea of India. If livelihood issues triumph, then the Hindu-Rashtra project will suffer a major set-back, and if the latter triumphs, the electorate will be all set for a greater polarization. Thus, the track that an average Delhi voter chooses will decide the template for electioneering in the Hindi belt states for at least the next decade and a half.
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