Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been used in warfare since the late 1960s, but the Southern Caucuses has become the first theater to see extensive and decisive use of drone weaponry.
The Caucasus
The caucuses (region between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea) holds little prominence in global affairs. But lately, this region had attained international attention due to the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over a long disputed hilly territory called Nagorno-Karabakh. The area has been autonomously administered and is populated by ethnic Armenians, but is circumscribed by recognized Azerbaijani territory. Notably, both Armenia and Azerbaijan were both erstwhile soviet republics. In the post-Soviet era, they did fight a brutal war in 1994 over Nagorno-Karabakh. Back then, although Azerbaijan was 4 times the size of Armenia, the latter emerged victorious due to its military's tactical and technological supremacy. In that war, Armenia not only took control of the hills of Nagorno-Karabakh, but also some adjoining Azerbaijani regions for strategic reasons.
The Region in Contention
The recent war that lasted 6 weeks, concluded a couple of days ago, after talks mediated by Russia and Turkey established a truce between the two warring nations. As part of the truce, it was agreed that Armenian troops would fully withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh (Orange Zone) and the occupied Azerbaijani territory (Brown Zone). This is a complete reversal of the gains that Armenia made in 1994 and is being seen as a clear victory for Azerbaijan. More than the actual conflict, what evokes curiosity is the question of what tilted the battle-field to Azerbaijan's favour - The answer is "Drones".
Turkish Drone: Bayraktar TB1
In May and June of this year, Azerbaijan made a big purchase of a fleet of Turkish Bayraktar TB1 drones. The Bayraktar drones are of the high-endurance (24 hour flights) and medium altitude (20,000 ft) category. Additionally, Bayraktars can carry up to 4 payloads (missiles) and are also stealthy in design, making them highly effective in combat. The Azeris followed their purchase with joint exercises with the Turkish military to get themselves acquainted with tactics for using them in battle. While the Turkish purchase was indeed a major technology upgrade for Azeri military, it was only an augmentation to its already big stockpile of drone weaponry that significantly also comprises the famous Israeli Kamikaze Drones (a.k.a loitering suicide drones). Here, it is to be noted that the Kamikazes are different from guided missiles in the sense that they are intended to hover around for considerably longer periods and carry out precision strikes.
Having had a history of bashing the Azeris, the Armenians began the recent war as a confident unit, and even many civilians volunteered to go to the front-line. But soon the Armenian military realized that the 2020 war was very different from the one that they fought in the 1990s. From the start, the Azeris exhibited tactical supremacy with their modern fleet of drones. One after the other, Armenian troops and their ground weaponry were getting smashed from the skies with smooth and stealthy attacks. Another impressive tactic that the Azeris pulled off was the makeover of their fleet of over 40 outdated Soviet era biplanes (AN-2M - made in the 1940s) as unmanned single use vehicles. While the bulky, noisy and low altitude AN-2M planes are no good in the current times, it was camouflaged as drones and used to bait the Armenians into activating their radar based missile defense systems. As and when the Armenian air defense fired at the useless biplanes, the heat sensors aided the actual Azari drones that fly stealthily at a higher altitude to take them down. By this strategy, the Azeris took down even advanced equipment like the Russian made S-300 and S-400 Triumph mobile anti-aircraft missile systems with ease. Notably, S-400 is currently touted as one of the most effective air defense systems and India too has purchased a batch of these in 2017 (delivery expected in 2021).
Soviet Era Double Plane: AN - 2M
Russia's S-400 Mobile Anti-aircraft Missile Defense System
While the Armenians too employed some drones, their arsenal was no match to the Azeri equipment and it was visibly an uneven war. Independent observers have confirmed that the Armenians lost about 7 times more equipment than the Azaris. The Armenian ground troops who were getting hit from above had little clue on where to direct their attack, as they never came within striking distance from the enemy. In this context, reports of demoralized Armenian troops deserting the war-zone also started to pour in, leaving the Armenian political dispensation with little option but to capitulate despite public opinion that was strongly against such a move. The Armenian government's move was indeed sensible as the causality count of the war is estimated to be around 3000, and a disproportionately large number of the dead is likely to be Armenian troopers. The politics apart, one thing that we can derive from the war is that the potential of drones in a full-scale war has proven to be decisive. Additionally, as the Azeri drones made Armenian ground machinery look like archaic weaponry, it makes us ponder on whether the era of conventional tank warfare is over.
Visual as seen by the drone-pilot:
An Azeri pilot locks his target - an Armenian Tank that has been camouflaged with the ground
While technological research on drone weaponry is already a priority for all major militaries, the Armenian debacle is likely to accentuate the same even more. The recent war largely saw single drones attacking surface targets, but in the near future, employment of cluster-attack drones and emergence of drone to drone battles are very much a likelihood. Further, the Azeri military released video footages of their drone strikes, which shows the level of sophistication with which drone pilots who are far removed from the battle-zone can narrow down targets and trigger missiles. This puts drone-pilots psychologically at a very different plane from that of conventional fighter pilots who'll be airborne while locking targets. In effect, drones are literally gamifying the battlefield, although the mental implications that this phenomenon will have on drone-pilots is not yet fully known. So, the day might not be very far when militaries start seeking specialized gamers to operate their drones.
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